Sunday, April 22, 2007

Were There WMD in Iraq?

If Dave Gaubatz is correct, there were.

Between March and July 2003, he says, he was taken to four sites in southern Iraq — two within Nasariyah, one 20 miles south and one near Basra — which, he was told by numerous Iraqi sources, contained biological and chemical weapons, material for a nuclear programme and UN-proscribed missiles. He was, he says, in no doubt whatever that this was true.

This was, in the first place, because of the massive size of these sites and the extreme lengths to which the Iraqis had gone to conceal them. Three of them were bunkers buried 20 to 30 feet beneath the Euphrates. They had been constructed through building dams which were removed after the huge subterranean vaults had been
excavated so that these were concealed beneath the river bed. The bunker walls were made of reinforced concrete five feet thick.

‘There was no doubt, with so much effort having gone into hiding these
constructions, that something very important was buried there’, says Mr Gaubatz. By speaking to a wide range of Iraqis, some of whom risked their lives by talking to him and whose accounts were provided in ignorance of each other, he built up a picture of the nuclear, chemical and biological materials they said were buried underground.

‘They explained in detail why WMDs were in these areas and asked the US to
remove them,’ says Mr Gaubatz. ‘Much of this material had been buried in the concrete bunkers and in the sewage pipe system. There were also missile imprints in the area and signs of chemical activity — gas masks, decontamination kits, atropine needles. The Iraqis and my team had no doubt at all that WMDs were hidden there.’

There was yet another significant piece of circumstantial corroboration. The medical
records of Mr Gaubatz and his team showed that at these sites they had been exposed to high levels of radiation.

And what happened to these WMD?

The problem was that the ISG were concentrating their efforts in looking for WMD in northern Iraq and this was in the south,’ says Mr Gaubatz. ‘They were just swept up by reports of WMD in so many different locations. But we told them that if they didn’t excavate these sites, others would.’

That, he says, is precisely what happened. He subsequently learnt from Iraqi, CIA and British intelligence that the WMD buried in the four sites were excavated by Iraqis and Syrians, with help from the Russians, and moved to Syria. The location in Syria of this material, he says, is also known to these intelligence agencies. The worst-case scenario has now come about. Saddam’s nuclear, biological and chemical material is in the hands of a rogue terrorist state — and one with close links to Iran.

So the Russians, who are currently building a heavy water nuclear reactor for the Iranians at Bushehr and are currently blocking efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear program helped transport Saddam's WMD to Syria, Iran's closest ally.

Of course, all this assumes Gaubatz is right. As someone who already believed Saddam's WMD had made their way into Syria, I'm inclined to believe him. What's more, his account of why the WMD weren't found there tracks pretty well with what we already know about the performance of both the intelligence community and the Coalition Provisional Authority. His account would also explain how insurgent groups in Iraq were able to get their hands on the chlorine gas that have been used in several truck bombs detonated in Iraq, though it would also raise the question of why nothing more potent has been used.

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Al Gore 2008?

Maybe.

Right now he seems like the Dems equivalent of Fred Thompson. He's the guy on which people dissatisfied with the current crop of candidates have pinned their hopes. This would seem to leave him with a slightly smaller constituency among Democrats than Thompson has among Republicans, but I could also see supporters of Hillary, Obama and Edwards giving him a fresh look if he were to actually announce his candidacy. Personally, I think he'll do something similar to Newt Gingrich. He'll look at how the field develops over the summer, and if no candidate emerges as the clear front-runner, he'll get in the race. The other likely possibility is that he'll get in if one of the big three candidates falters. He may also get in just to stop Hillary getting the nomination, though I think he'd have to be pretty confident in his chances of winning the nomination himself to do that.

In the end, only Al Gore knows his own mind, and this only so much idle speculation. Still, I think Gore gets in the race before the end of the summer unless someone opens up a big lead by then.

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Monday, April 16, 2007

Things Were Better Then

In some ways, things were really better then than now. Now it seems like we've become a bunch of paranoid wilting flowers without a shred of common sense.

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Thursday, April 05, 2007

Will the Dems Cut Funding for Iraq?

Mario Loyola thinks they might. I don't see it happening any time soon, though they seem to be trying to build political momentum toward it. Hence the date-certain for withdrawal of U.S. forces in the war supplementals. Still, the President has said he will veto any funding bill with a time line for withdrawal, and this puts the Dems in a corner. Either they cut funding immediately, which they don't feel they are in a position to do safely, or they fund the war without a time line for withdrawal, in which case they will have acquiesced to a war they supposedly oppose, fatally undermining their position.

Honestly, I think the Dems moved too quickly on this issue. Iraq played a critical role in their victory in 2006 because things were obviously going so badly there. The American people were clearly dissatisfied with the sate of affairs and wanted something different, but they weren't ready to throw in the towel. Realizing this, the President made some personnel adjustments, replacing Donald Rumsfeld with Robert Gates and putting General David Petraeus in charge in Iraq. He also made tactical and strategic adjustments, initiating the troop "surge" and taking limited actions against Iranian agents working to undermine the Iraqi government.

At this point, it would probably have been best for the Democrats to say something to the effect of "The American people voted for a change of course in Iraq, and this appears to be just that. The President appears to have heard the wishes of the American people and is responding positively to them. We will give his new plan a chance to work, but if, in six months time, this new strategy proves as ineffectual as the last one, we're pulling the plug." This would have meant the issue would be coming up again this fall as appropriations season rolled around again, making it the natural time to consider cutting off funds. It also would have left Democrats with an out should the surge appear to be working. Instead, whether out of sheer shortsightedness or the perceived need to appease their anti-war base, the Democrats have forced themselves into a corner which will have disastrous effects, either for them or for American foreign policy.


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Question for Believers in Anthropogenic Global Warming

If global warming is caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide resulting from human industrial activity, as opposed to increased solar activity, why is Mars warming at a rate four times faster than the Earth?

I do realize that correlation does not imply causality, but if there is no causal link between the warming of the Earth and the warming of Mars, there must be some other explanation for the warming occurring on Mars. And before anyone points out the effect wind storms are having on Mars, let me point out that wind occurs when air in one region becomes warmer than air in another region and air moves to reestablish thermal equilibrium. The sun heats the Martian atmosphere just as it heats the Earth's atmosphere. If the sun is more active, the areas of the Martian atmosphere exposed to the most sunlight will become warmer relative to the areas that receive less sunlight than they otherwise would be. This greater temperature difference between regions leads to more severe windstorms, which then kick up more dust, reducing the albedo effect discussed in the story.

It may well be that man is largely responsible for global warming (though I very much doubt it), but in order to establish this, increases and decreases in solar activity must be conclusively shown to have little to no effect on climate.

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Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Never Saw This Coming

Daylight Savings Time has little or no effect on energy consumption. I wonder why. Could it be that Daylight "Savings" Time doesn't actually effect the length of a day?

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