Monday, September 19, 2005

This Could Be Huge

North Korea may be about to agree to give up its nuclear programs, both military and civilian. Apparently some details need to be ironed out, but the fact that the parties involved feel confident enough to announce a near-deal indicates that it may be possible to reach a diplomatic solution to this serious problem, and soon.

That said, I don't trust North Korea. From what I've seen of them, I have no reason to think it likely they will honor any agreement reached. Furthermore, it is my suspicion that even if they do hold to the agreement, they will either maintain a small program out of the sight of the IAEA or dismantle their program by selling its components to the highest bidder, and this includes the weapons they have supposedly manufactured. Ostensibly, the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea will have insisted on measures to prevent the latter, but their effectiveness would ultimately be dependent upon North Korean cooperation. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I may be right.

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