North Korean Test

North Korea has reportedly tested a nuclear weapon. For my part, I'm skeptical. According to both the French and the South Koreans, the explosion was the equivalent of 550 tons of TNT*, and there has been no radiation detected at the site of the explosion as yet.

North Korea has claimed to have nuclear weapons since 2002, but there has never been any hard evidence to support this claim. It has also seen a significant portion of its income dry up as the United States has taken measures to disrupt its distribution of counterfeit American dollars. It seems possible that North Korea staged a phony nuclear test either to extort economic aid from the United States, South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia, or to advertize their nuclear wares to the Iranians. It is also possible that the "test" is motivated more by domestic politics than international politics. Either way, North Korea gains as much by a fake test everyone else believes is legitimate as by an actual nuclear test, especially after its failed missile test on 4 July.

In short, the most likely scenario at this point is that North Korea buried a few hundred tons of TNT, set it off and claimed it had conducted a nuclear test (and that the radiation had been perfectly contained). Until I see any hard evidence to the contrary (e.g. radiation being emitted from the test site), I see no reason to belive North Korea has conducted an actual nuclear test.

*Russia claims the explosion was equivalent to 5,000-15,000 tons of TNT, which would make it similar in size to the Hiroshima bomb. If this is correct, I'd be more inclined to believe that North Korea did indeed carry out a nuclear test.

Update: Apparently I'm not the only skeptic.