Best for the Right

Jim Geraghty notes that Rush Limbuagh has been urging Republicans in Ohio and Texas to vote for Senator Hillary Clinton in today's primaries on the grounds that the longer the Democrats spend beating up on each other, the more it helps Senator John McCain. This is probably correct, but I wonder if it is really best for conservative political aims going forward.

As has been noted by many conservatives, Rush Limbaugh included, there are several significant issues between Senator McCain and the conservative base of the Republican party. These differences are so great and the bitterness they have engendered so severe that it is believed many will stay home on election day. More importantly, conservatives feel his favored policies, if enacted, on immigration, global warming and embryonic stem cell research would be detrimental to the welfare of the nation. Many conservatives are unsure of McCain, not willing to trust him on issues other than the war and want to see him make rapprochement with them by addressing concerns they have over these and other issues. In an election cycle that looks to favor Democrats rather heavily, McCain will need all of the support he can get, and he will especially need to shore up his conservative base if he wants to win.

However, the Clinton-Obama cat-fight threatens to disrupt this calculus. If they do enough damage to each other, McCain may well conclude that emphasizing his status as a maverick willing to break with the party he desires to lead provides him with a greater electoral advantage in the general election by appealing to independents put off by the internecine conflict in the Democrat party (which will only get nastier if Clinton believes she has even a ghost of a chance).

A settled Democratic nominee forces McCain to shore up his base and go from there. A nasty political brawl on the Democratic side makes it less necessary for McCain to appease would-be conservatives unsure about whether the costs of a McCain presidency would outweigh the benefits. That's not to say emphasizing his maverick status wouldn't work for McCain; it may well. But if the consequence of a McCain victory is "comprehensive immigration reform", a cap-and-trade system for carbon dioxide emissions, and embryonic stem cell research, conservatives may well view a McCain victory as being rather Pyrrhic.