Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Well, what's the chance of McCain winning this election?

My grandmother just asked me this question. My thoughts below.

Right now, if McCain's going to have a chance, the economy needs to stabilize a bit, and he needs to develop a more coherent message on the economy. Obama sounds good on the economy until you stop and think about what he says. Trouble is, McCain is Obama-lite when it comes to
the current financial mess, at least rhetorically. Both view it as a market failure caused by the greed of Wall Street fat-cats when there is a convincing case to be made that the failure is a result of government intervention and regulation of the housing market. There is also a compelling case to be made that Obama bears at least partial responsibility for causing the housing mess. McCain isn't making either case, and he isn't making a compelling case for his other economic policies. McCain is great on foreign policy, national security, love of country and duty, but he seems a fish out of water discussing economic issues. He's a Teddy Roosevelt Republican, with all the regulatory baggage that brings, and if he can't bring himself to stand up for the free market and show how government is at the root of our current economic problems, he comes across as a lesser Obama. And if he comes across as a lesser Obama, there's no reason for people to vote for him.

Ultimately, there are quite a few issues on which McCain can effectively and favorably contrast himself with Obama. Unfortunately, the economy hasn't been one of them. What McCain needs to do is root the crisis in the violation of the people's trust by government officials and quasi-government officials like Jim Johnson and Frnaklin Raines. McCain needs to unleash his reformist, maverick streak on the government because doing so would actually begin to address the underlying crisis, and because it undermines Obama's call for further regulation of financial markets. However, he only gets space to make this case once the current crisis abates somewhat. Hopefully, things will clear up within the next week or so, giving McCain three weeks to make his case, starting at the next presidential debate, where he should hit Obama hard both on his calls for further regulation of Wall Street and his involvement with ACORN as they looked to intimidate banks into giving home loans to people with bad credit.

Man, I wish Romney were on the ticket right about now. In fact, Romney-Bolton '08 sounds really goods to me right about now.*

*Not that they'd have much of a chance of winning.

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