"Ron Paul has the most energized base of any candidate."
Perhaps. But it has only gotten him 11% of the popular vote thus far. Paul's base may be energized, giving him a relatively high floor, but he has shown no ability to use this floor to raise his ceiling.
"He is attracting young people disatisfied [sic] with the disaster that is Obama."
The young consistently have the lowest turnout rate in the country, while the ones who are most likely to vote are senior citizens. It is difficult to see how he can bring in enough new young voters to offset the elderly voters who will vote against him because he thinks Medicare is unconstitutional. How many votes will he lose when it becomes widely known that he believes "Just think of what happened after 9/11. Immediately before there was any assessment there was glee in the administration because now we can invade Iraq." How many people will dismiss him as a crank when they find out that he said
There’s been a coup, have you heard? It’s the CIA coup. The CIA runs everything, they run the military. They’re the ones who are over there lobbing missiles and bombs on countries. … And of course the CIA is every bit as secretive as the Federal Reserve. … And yet think of the harm they have done since they were established [after] World War II. They are a government unto themselves. They’re in businesses, in drug businesses, they take out dictators … We need to take out the CIA.
Will Ron Paul really be able to attract new voters with this story being played and replayed for six months when his best defense is that he didn't write those horrible things, he just allowed his name to be attached to them and made millions of dollars off of them? Once these things and more are given constant attention, what will it matter that Paul currently leads Obama by two points in the daily tracking poll?
"Finally, even with the Republican Party and the Media misrepresenting his policy positions on a daily basis he is still gaining ground. He [sic] message of individual liberty, limited government, sound money, and a pro-American foreign policy is resonating with an ever growing number of Americans."
Paul has largely bounced between 6 and 15 percent in the polls. He currently sits at just over 11 percent in the Real Clear Politics average. His numbers may tick up slightly when either Gingrich or Santorum drops out (most likely Gingrich), but most of the supporters of the one will switch to the other as the last viable non-Romney candidate. He has won all of eight* delegates, less than one percent of the total required to win the nomination. The environment for him has been relatively positive, as the vast majority of the negative advertising has been directed at Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum. Were Paul to become a serious obstacle to any of the other candidates, it would suddenly become much more difficult for him to avoid the sort of negative attention that sank Gingrich in Florida and hampered Santorum in Arizona and Michgan (where he only came close to winning because of crossover support from Democrats interested in keeping things going).
As for his (the?) message, describing it as one of individual liberty, limited government, sound money, and pro-American foreign policy is to say that Paul's message is thoroughly consistent with Republican principles and could also be applied to the messages of the other Republican candidates.**
When it's all said and done, Ron Paul has some good things to say (and some not-so-good), but he's been in the fever swamps too long to be a viable presidential candidate.
*If you don't count the non-binding caucuses.
**I'm leaving aside the details of the individual candidates' messages. My point is merely that their campaigns portray their policy proposals as being consistent with these ideals.
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