Terrorist Threat Worse

A new National Intelligence Estimate has reportedly found that the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq has worsened the threat of terrorism. Even though the report was completed in April, there is no reason to assume that things are any different now. There is also no reason to assume the report is fundamentally flawed, in spite of the recent track record of American intelligence agencies.

However, it would be wrong to draw the conclusion that pulling American troops out of Iraq would lessen the terrorist threat. The terrorist threat has worsened because the invasion of Iraq gave radical Muslims the opportunity to fight the Great Satan. The fact that they have not yet been defeated gives them hope of victory, and the more attacks al Qaeda in Iraq and the Shiite death squads can pull off without bringing down the full wrath of the Americans, the greater the prospect of an American defeat looms, thus encouraging Muslims in the Middle East and beyond to side with the various insurgent groups. Pulling out of Iraq would be seen as a victory for groups like al Qaeda in Iraq and would further increase the threat of terrorism because the entire Muslim world will have seen that it can defeat America on the field of battle. The only way to reduce the terrorist threat is to win. The Iraqi insurgency must be crushed. So must al Qaeda in Iraq and the Mehdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr. Ultimately, this will mean dealing with Syria and Iran, possibly, though not necessarily militarily. It is only by defeating Muslim terrorist groups and their state sponsors and enablers that the threat of terrorism can be elminated.